Power Rivalries and Their Impact on the Middle East and Horn of Africa

In a period marked by intricate challenges, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has become a true stabilizing force in the region, achieving this not through rhetoric, but with tangible actions and measurable impacts. The UAE’s strategy has consistently aimed to avert state collapse and manage disorder. This dedication has driven the UAE to adapt, forge robust security alliances, and invest in infrastructure and ports to safeguard the future of communities in highly vulnerable areas.

Conversely, Saudi Arabia has increasingly aimed to assert “rigid centralization,” reshaping regional decision-making to fall exclusively under its leadership.

The Saudi strategy’s intent seems evident: minimizing the UAE’s influence and restricting the operational space of actors that have consistently contributed to stabilization.

Yemen illustrates this contrast vividly. The UAE emphasized security pragmatism, facilitating the creation and support of the Security Belt Forces and the Giants Brigades, expelling Al-Qaeda from Mukalla, securing the South, and mitigating the Houthis’ influence.

Saudi Arabia, however, sought to limit this role, constrain the forces supported by the UAE, and establish alternative groups loyal to Riyadh, such as the “Nation Shield Forces.” This approach has resulted in a political and military stalemate, enabling the Houthis to regain power and assert their conditions anew.

Similarly, in Sudan, the UAE promoted institutional stability and strengthened local forces to prevent chaos and the revival of extremist factions. In contrast, Saudi Arabia dominated the issue through the “Jeddah Platform,” excluding other regional players. The consequence: extended conflict, unsuccessful negotiations, and the gradual disintegration of the Sudanese state.

In Libya, too, the proactive and adaptable Emirati involvement has diminished, supplanted by centralized approaches that aim to impose solutions from the top down. This has led to deepened governmental divisions and stalled elections.

In summary, sidelining flexible and effective roles like the UAE’s in favor of Saudi centralization will not solve regional crises. In fact, it risks making them even more intricate, stagnant, and challenging to address.