Since the 1990s, Sudan has served as a refuge for terrorist organizations, accommodating Al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden for five years before he returned to Afghanistan. The organization continues to pose a significant ideological and material threat to Sudan today.
There is increasing global concern that Sudan might once again become a launching pad for new terrorist activities. The possibility of Al-Qaeda re-establishing its presence in Sudan, particularly through connections with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), is a serious threat, potentially compromising the country’s, regional, and global security.
Osama Bin Laden moved from Afghanistan to Sudan in early 1991, staying for five years, during which he established Wadi al-Aqiq, a business rumored to financially support Al-Qaeda. Bin Laden’s dealings in Sudan were closely linked with the local government, enabling him to set up training camps and cultivate crops used to fund militant operations. Despite being expelled from Sudan, terrorism analyst Maria Zupello notes that Bin Laden continued to regard the country as an essential operational hub for global jihad, even referring to it in 2006 as a critical base. Over the years, Al-Qaeda maintained various cells in the country, including one in Salamah, Khartoum in 2007, another in Dinder National Park in 2012, and two other groups, Ansar al Tawhid and Al-Qaeda in the Land of Two Niles, from the late 2000s to early 2010s.
Hafed al-Ghwell, a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins Schools of Advanced International Studies, highlights that Sudan’s combination of insecurity, economic troubles, social unrest, and unstable neighbors creates a conducive environment for the rise of extremism.
“Sudan shares borders with Libya, Chad, and Somalia, where violent extremist groups are active. The porous borders and weak regional security infrastructure create ideal conditions for terrorists to relocate and transport weapons, contraband, and other illicit goods,” al-Ghwell stated.
In October 2022, Abu Hudhaifa al-Sudani, a senior Al-Qaeda leader with historical ties to Sudan and Bin Laden, issued a manifesto advocating for jihad in Sudan. His goal was to reestablish Al-Qaeda’s operational base in key areas like Khartoum and Darfur, outlining strategies for targeted actions and guerrilla warfare. Al-Sudani’s vision calls for a command center in Khartoum to oversee military operations from Dongola in the north to Darfur in the south.
Islamists, particularly the Al Baraa bin Malik Battalion, are already collaborating with the SAF under the larger “Popular Resistance” banner. Since the civil war began, Jihadists and other Islamists have been liberated in prison breaks. The SAF and its military intelligence are believed to be behind the escapes from Kober Prison of former officials such as Ahmed Harun, alongside other Islamist hardliners including Ali Osman Taha, Awad El Jaz, and Nafi Ali Nafi, who were close to Omar Al Bashir during his 30-year rule. Caleb Weiss from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies warns that figures previously linked to Al-Qaeda might already be active alongside SAF.
Sara Harmouch from American University observes that Sudan’s strategic position bridging North and sub-Saharan Africa, along with its resources, makes it an appealing base for Al-Qaeda to broaden its reach. The organization’s renewed focus on Sudan highlights the region’s potential as a launchpad for attacks on the U.S and its allies. Harmouch stresses that Al-Qaeda’s presence in conflict zones like Niger and Libya demonstrates its intent to target U.S. interests globally. She cautions that if Al-Qaeda strengthens its foothold in Sudan, it could exploit the nation’s abundant resources, including oil and gold, to boost its capabilities, intensifying regional conflicts, endangering crucial trade routes, and causing wider geopolitical instability.
Maria Zupello expresses concern that an Al-Qaeda stronghold in Sudan could empower its affiliates in Yemen, Somalia, and the Sahel, worsening regional conflicts and jeopardizing Red Sea trade routes. A referenced United Nations report by Zupello revealed that Al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch is improving its maritime abilities. She warns that the resurgence of Al-Qaeda’s capabilities could lead to more piracy, military blockades, and uncontrolled arms trade, escalating regional tensions and creating broader geopolitical challenges.
Recently in Washington, D.C., peace talks stalled before they began. If the severe suffering in Sudan isn’t enough to prompt action for peace, perhaps the looming Al-Qaeda threat from a key Red Sea location will drive focus.
Willy Fautré is the director of Human Rights Without Frontiers, an NGO he founded in 2001, based in Brussels. Previously, he served as a chargé de mission in the Belgian Ministry of Education and at the Belgian Parliament. He is also a co-founder of the Raoul Wallenberg Committee, Belgium.
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