Germany’s Scholz Approaches a Turning Point: What to Expect Next

Scholz and his minority government, formed by his center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens, will remain in place for the time being, continuing to exercise full authority.

However, lacking a parliamentary majority required to pass legislation, and with an imminent vote expected to oust him, Scholz is widely seen as a lame duck, both domestically and internationally.

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How Did It Come to This?

The unraveling of Scholz’s coalition began in early November, just hours after Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Scholz tearfully addressed the nation, revealing that significant disagreements over spending had led to the dramatic collapse of his tripartite government.

The coalition, which brought together Scholz’s SPD, the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), was fraught with ideological tensions from the start. While the SPD and Greens advocate for increased social spending and large-scale investments to accelerate economic growth and the transition to green energy, the FDP’s fiscally conservative stance champions limited government intervention and restrained spending. We delved deeper into these dynamics in our full analysis here.

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What’s Next for Germany’s Government?

As Germany gears up for an anticipated election in February, the polls show a significant lead for Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), holding 32 percent support. This figure is double that of Scholz’s SPD, which now trails behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in third place.

The key question is which party will join the CDU/CSU as their junior coalition partner. Potential candidates include the SPD or the Greens, though it remains uncertain whether either will secure enough seats to facilitate a two-party coalition. The growing support for the AfD and the emergence of the populist-left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) have raised the possibility that three-party coalitions—historically rare and more precarious in postwar German politics—could become the norm moving forward.