Mastering Poland’s EU Presidency Policy Agenda: A Pro’s Guide

Poland Takes the Helm with a Robust Security-Centric EU Agenda

Under the banner of a sweeping six-month policy agenda focused on various dimensions of security — including external and military security, energy, economy, food and climate, health, and information — Poland is preparing to steer the EU through a complex and demanding presidency. While Prime Minister Donald Tusk brings extensive experience as a former European Council president and a seasoned insider of the Brussels political scene, the country faces significant challenges in delivering tangible progress during its leadership.

Here’s a closer look at one of the key priorities on Poland’s crowded agenda:

—

Bracing for Trump Tariffs

Why It’s Crucial:
The prospect of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returning to office with plans to impose broad tariffs — ranging from 10 to 20 percent across the board, and up to 60 percent on Chinese imports — has set off alarm bells in Brussels. Such measures could profoundly disrupt the EU’s trade dynamics and global supply chains.

Current Landscape:
With Trump’s second term anticipated to pose even greater challenges to transatlantic trade than his first, the European Commission has sought to bolster its trade defenses. Preparedness has been a key focus, leveraging the trade tools it has honed since Trump’s initial tenure. However, it won’t just be about being ready for impact — bringing Trump to the negotiating table will demand strategic diplomacy and leverage.

One potential approach involves targeting imports from Trump’s political base in the lead-up to the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. This tactical retaliation mirrors EU strategies employed during Trump’s previous presidency.

Immediate Pressure Points:
An existing U.S.-EU dispute over steel and aluminum tariffs — originally initiated during Trump’s first term — remains unresolved despite the more conciliatory approach taken by the Biden administration. Complicating matters further, a current truce on EU retaliation measures is set to expire in March 2025, aligning awkwardly with the early months of the new Trump presidency and at the heart of Poland’s EU stewardship. Finding a resolution will be critical to containing the economic fallout and preserving EU unity during this volatile period.

—

As Poland grapples with such high-stakes issues, the success of its EU presidency will depend on navigating these challenges with strategic acumen and a unified European front. Prime Minister Tusk’s expertise in Brussels will be invaluable, but the road ahead will not be an easy one.