Expert Warns: Trump Trade Dispute Poses Risk to EU’s Future

Berlin (dpa) – A trade expert warns that the ongoing trade conflict between the USA and the EU may escalate into a significant confrontation with dire implications for Europe. In a scenario paper acquired by the German Press Agency, Laura von Daniels from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) asserts, “For the first time since World War II, Americans and Europeans may find themselves not only as economic rivals but as adversaries with fundamentally opposing geopolitical perspectives.”

According to the head of the SWP’s America working group, the trade dispute fueled by US President Donald Trump has considerable divisive potential. The impact of US tariffs is uneven across the EU, affecting export-driven nations like Germany, Ireland, and Italy more profoundly. “If these countries consider entering into individual bilateral agreements with Trump, it could undermine the internal market’s strength and jeopardize the future of the EU.”

Trump’s Security Policy Crossover

Von Daniels also highlights that Trump will likely continue to intertwine economic issues with security policy to sow discord within the EU. “While states on the eastern front view a potential US withdrawal from Europe as a critical threat, other member states regard the security implications as less severe.” This divergence diminishes the EU’s ability to respond collectively to Trump’s threats.

Recently, Trump postponed the deadline for new tariffs to August 1. Earlier, he had set a base tariff of ten percent on nearly all EU imports and imposed special tariffs on certain products such as steel, aluminum, and vehicles. His tariff strategy aims to boost domestic production in the USA. The EU has momentarily suspended proposed counter-tariffs while negotiations are still in progress.

Von Daniels deems a scenario where the USA completely lifts its tariffs as unrealistic, envisioning that the EU would need to make significant concessions. More plausible alternatives exist.

Quick Agreement?

For a swift “deal” with Trump, the EU could agree to a general US import tariff of 10 percent on most goods, while the US might offer fixed quotas for duty-free imports of certain materials, like specific steel and aluminum products.

“From a US viewpoint, an early agreement could showcase a more moderate policy to financial markets,” the expert notes, considering the USA’s rising credit risks and a weakening dollar. However, she cautions: “For the EU, there is a notable risk that any deal with Trump could be short-lived.” Additional US tariffs on specific sectors are anticipated in the fall.

“This creates the worry that the EU signals to Trump a tendency to yield under pressure in the future,” warns von Daniels. An early agreement would merely serve as an “economic policy ceasefire,” buying time and instantly alleviating high escalation costs.

Potential Consequences

In a second scenario, von Daniels foresees continued negotiations without resolution, leading to increased costs from existing tariffs. Trump is expected to exert pressure on the EU through security-related provocations, which could fracture the EU’s initially united front over negotiation strategies.

Lastly, in the third scenario, a full-blown trade and economic war between the USA and the EU may erupt, with von Daniels not ruling out that Trump could further pressure NATO by withdrawing US troops from Europe beyond current expectations in security circles.

The EU’s potential countermeasures, which could impact digital services and property rights, might be countered by Trump with financial sanctions, a cessation of liquefied gas supplies, or export restrictions on US software.

What Trump’s true objectives are remains ambiguous to trade partners, notes von Daniels. It is evident: “The EU and Germany, being the most economically significant member state and political powerhouse, must brace for the possibility of a failed agreement.” (July 9)


Comments

5 responses to “Expert Warns: Trump Trade Dispute Poses Risk to EU’s Future”

  1. Trade wars, eh? Just what we need to spice up our afternoon espresso. Who knew economic rivalry could be the new thriller series on Netflix? 🍿😏

  2. Diamond Gamer Avatar
    Diamond Gamer

    Just what we needed, another geopolitical soap opera starring Trump—who knew our trade policies could rival a telenovela for drama? 🍿 If only negotiating with him came with a side of fries and a decent pint, we’d be sorted, innit?

  3. Mother Night Avatar
    Mother Night

    Trade tensions with Trump? Oh joy, just what we needed! 🇪🇺💼 If only the EU could turn tariffs into a new Olympic sport, we’d be gold medalists by now! 🥇

  4. wild hair Avatar
    wild hair

    Guess we’re all just waiting for the next episode of “As the Tariff Turns.” Who knew that a trade dispute could turn into a geopolitical soap opera? 🍿

  5. NoiseFire Avatar
    NoiseFire

    Oh, brilliant! Just what we needed—another round of “let’s see how much we can annoy our closest friends” from the land of opportunity. Can’t wait for the next episode of “Trump vs. EU: The Tariff Games”! 🤦‍♂️💼

  6. TrinitySoul Avatar
    TrinitySoul

    Oh great, just what we needed—another plot twist in the Euro-American soap opera! Who knew tariffs could bring more drama than a reality TV show? 😂💼

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Last News

Diepenbeek: 21 Flats by Dethier to Replace Old Post Office

Diepenbeek: 21 Flats by Dethier to Replace Old Post Office

Diepenbeek (Eurotoday) – The old post office on Kerkstraat in Diepenbeek will be replaced by a green housing project with 21 apartments. Dethier plans 2 L-shaped buildings and a private garden.
As VRT News reported, the old post office on Kerkstraat in Diepenbeek, a municipality in the province of Limburg, Belgium, is being demolished. A new housing project will be built there. Officials mention

Read More

EU Considers Halting Israel Relations Amid Gaza Crisis

EU Considers Halting Israel Relations Amid Gaza Crisis

The review indicates that suspending the trade chapter of the agreement would remove trade preferences for Israeli products entering the EU, potentially passing with a qualified majority vote in the Council. A complete ban on imports from illegal West Bank settlements demands unanimity from member states, but individual nations can adopt this policy on their own.
Alternative options include exclud

Read More

EP adopted resolution on China’s raw material export restrictions at Lexmann’s request

EP adopted resolution on China’s raw material export restrictions at Lexmann’s request

Brussels/Strasbourg – The European Parliament (EP) approved a resolution on Thursday to address the EU’s economic, security, and strategic interests in the supply of critical raw materials, initiated by Slovak MEP Miriam Lexmann (EPP/KDH). She emphasized the significance of this issue for European security, as reported by TASR.
As a member of the EP Committee on International Trade (INTA),

Read More

Vought SB2U Vindicator: A Naval Aviation Legacy

Vought SB2U Vindicator: A Naval Aviation Legacy

Introduction 
If you have an interest in aviation or you enjoy studying old planes, chances are the Vought SB2U Vindicator will catch your fancy. One might wonder why we concentrate on this plane and not on more famous types of WWII aircraft, such as the 4U Corsair. That is why the Vindicator preceded the Corsair and was used in World War II, but is not very popular. It acted as a basis for subs

Read More

Expert Warns: Trump Trade Dispute Poses Risk to EU’s Future

Expert Warns: Trump Trade Dispute Poses Risk to EU’s Future

Berlin (dpa) – A trade expert warns that the ongoing trade conflict between the USA and the EU may escalate into a significant confrontation with dire implications for Europe. In a scenario paper acquired by the German Press Agency, Laura von Daniels from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) asserts, “For the first time since World War II, Americans and Europeans may

Read More

EU allies express ‘concern’ over Israel’s plan to relocate displaced Palestinians to restricted area

EU allies express ‘concern’ over Israel’s plan to relocate displaced Palestinians to restricted area

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz briefed reporters about his plan to relocate around 600,000 displaced Palestinians in Gaza into a sealed-off zone, according to media reports. Katz stated that the entire population of over 2 million Palestinians would eventually be moved into this zone, which he reportedly described as a “humanitarian city.”
Although Germany and Austria are among Israel’s stro

Read More

Explosive Found in Antwerp, DOVO Responds, Confirms Bruyns

Explosive Found in Antwerp, DOVO Responds, Confirms Bruyns

Antwerp (Eurotoday) – An explosive device was found on Thursday, July 10, 2025, in Merksem, Antwerp, near Oostkaai. DOVO safely exploded it in Ekeren. Police suspect links to drug crime. Spokesperson: Wouter Bruyns.
As VRT News reported, on Thursday morning, July 10, 2025, there was a serious safety alert in Merksem, a northern part of Antwerp. A suspicious package was found on the street near t

Read More

EU and USA Could Finalize Tariff Framework Agreement in Days

EU and USA Could Finalize Tariff Framework Agreement in Days

The EU and the USA are actively negotiating a framework agreement on tariffs, which is expected to be completed “in the coming days.”
This announcement was made on Wednesday by EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, who leads the EU Commission’s negotiations.
“We have made significant progress toward a framework declaration. I am optimistic that we will finalize our work shortly,

Read More

Czech Intel Report Claims Russia Employs Migrants to Cause Chaos

Czech Intel Report Claims Russia Employs Migrants to Cause Chaos

The report indicated efforts to weaken Western societal cohesion, instill fear and uncertainty, reduce public confidence in the state’s protective abilities, and increase pressure to limit support for Ukraine against Russian aggression.
According to the Czech intelligence document, many agents unknowingly work for Russia through intermediaries.
Czechia has endured numerous attacks by Russian

Read More

Mickoski: Bulgaria hindered us today, but Macedonia stays proud; we will not tolerate another betrayal

Mickoski: Bulgaria hindered us today, but Macedonia stays proud; we will not tolerate another betrayal

Skopje – We stand proud, with our heads held high. Today, Bulgaria acted against us. The world has witnessed the challenges and injustices we encounter as a state and a nation in the 21st century. We can now openly tell Europe that the truth has emerged, stated Prime Minister Christian Mitskoski at an extraordinary press conference.
Mitskoski asserted from the party headquarters that we are on th

Read More