As the military offensive progressed, others echoed Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as al-Jolani, highlighting the dire state of the Syrian regime. Sharaa, who appears to have dropped his nom de guerre in favor of his birth name, pointed to the fragility of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.
“The Syrian Arab Army is a hollowed-out shell, far weaker than its ostensible numbers and weapons would indicate,” observed former U.S. diplomat Alberto M. Fernandez. “Syria is an economic basket case. Officers take bribes to allow soldiers extended leave so they can work elsewhere. Some units seem to have broken down entirely after losing their leadership.”
Still, Sharaa’s leadership in the ten-day offensive deserves recognition. He successfully united more than a dozen often-fractious rebel factions, secured apparent backing from Turkey, and executed the campaign strategically. These accomplishments highlight his military and political prowess, reminiscent of his 2016 maneuver to split from al-Qaeda without sparking internal violence. At the time, he justified the break by stating it was necessary to prevent the U.S. and Russia from using the connection as a pretext for airstrikes on the broader rebel movement.
Unsurprisingly, this well-orchestrated rebel advance has credit spread across multiple players. Turkey’s involvement is seen as pivotal. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his officials initially denied any role in the operation, presenting themselves as mere observers, the narrative shifted as the offensive gained momentum. By Friday, with rebels closing in on Damascus, Erdoğan openly endorsed the assault, expressing his hopes for its continued success.
“Idlib, Hama, Homs, and the target, of course, is Damascus. The opposition’s march continues,” Erdoğan remarked to reporters. He added, “We made a call to Assad. We said: ‘Come, let’s determine the future of Syria together.’ Unfortunately, we did not receive a positive response to this.”
Few analysts believe the offensive could have unfolded without Ankara’s consent. According to Hadi al-Bahra, head of a Syrian rebel opposition group recognized internationally, the groundwork for this campaign began last year. These preparations included Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and over a dozen militias affiliated with the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army. This coalition, which has collaborated with Turkey’s military in northern Syria, has primarily been combating Syrian Kurdish forces under Ankara’s oversight.
Turkey’s involvement, from its tacit approval to open support, underscores its critical role in what may reshape the balance of power in Syria’s ongoing conflict.
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