Syrie : qui sont les gagnants et les perdants de la chute d’Assad ?

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Over 13 million Syrians have been forcibly displaced due to the ongoing conflict, with 6.2 million fleeing abroad. The war has created fertile ground for the rise of extremist groups, including the particularly brutal Islamic State (ISIS).

Whether ordinary Syrians will ultimately benefit depends on the country’s ability to avoid further violence and rebuild peacefully. However, fears persist over potential power vacuums and clashes between the nation’s myriad political factions and religious groups.

Concerns are well-founded. The main insurgent faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is labeled a terrorist organization by the United States. Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, has a long history as a jihadist and was once an ally of the late Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS. However, a falling-out over strategic differences turned the two into bitter enemies.

While HTS officially severed ties with al-Qaeda, al-Joulani has worked to rebrand the group, which comprises roughly 30,000 fighters, as a nationalist force. He has also adopted a notably softer stance toward Syria’s religious minorities. In the Idlib enclave, under HTS control since 2016, the group has eased its approach to Christian and Druze communities. Following the capture of Aleppo, al-Joulani assured Christians of their safety, allowing churches to operate freely.

The pressing question remains whether al-Joulani and HTS have genuinely abandoned their extremist roots. On Friday, al-Joulani declared that the group had evolved and that rebuilding Syria was now a priority. “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is just one part of this broader conversation, and it can dissolve at any moment. It’s not an end in itself, but a means to achieve a goal: confronting this regime,” he explained in an interview with CNN.

While some hope that HTS has indeed shifted its priorities, skepticism lingers. Former U.S. diplomat Alberto Fernandez cautioned against placing too much trust in al-Joulani and HTS, comparing the situation to Oscar Wilde’s famous remark about second marriages as “the triumph of hope over experience.”

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