Abstract
Drawing on classical and contemporary theories of revolution, this article argues that today’s Iran exhibits most of the conditions identified in political science literature as the “pre-requisites of a social revolution.” An analysis of Iran’s political, economic, cultural, and security trajectories—supported by concrete empirical examples—shows that the country’s governance structure has entered a state of chronic instability. The simultaneous convergence of multiple structural crises has pushed Iran into a phase that can be described as
“the threshold of a revolutionary transformation.”
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Introduction
Across most theories of revolution, social revolution is never the outcome of a single factor; rather, it emerges from the intersection and accumulation of several structural crises in the domains of state, economy, society, and culture. This article examines how these factors have become simultaneously active in present-day Iran and discusses the implications of this convergence for the future of the country’s political order and the trajectory of potential regime transition.
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Crisis of Legitimacy: The Triple Collapse of Ideology, Performance, and Representation
2.1. Theoretical background
In the Weberian tradition, legitimacy is regarded as the most important pillar of political survival. In the case of the Islamic Republic, this pillar has been severely eroded—sometimes fully collapsed—across three core dimensions: electoral legitimacy, performance legitimacy, and ideological legitimacy.
2.2. Electoral legitimacy
Voter turnout of roughly 8 percent in Tehran in the latest elections, coupled with surveys conducted by institutions close to the state showing that only about ten percent of the population expresses support for the continuation of the regime, illustrates a deep erosion of electoral legitimacy. For a system that defines itself as a “religious democracy,” such figures indicate not merely voter disengagement but a fundamental collapse of public trust in the regime’s representative structures.
2.3. Performance legitimacy
Persistent structural inflation exceeding 40 percent, the collapse of the national currency rial, chronic water scarcity, lethal air pollution, and a sharp decline in living standards collectively depict a state apparatus unable to manage the economy or the environment.
Concrete examples—such as water famine and mass protests in Khuzestan, the drying of the Zayandeh Roud, the near disappearance of Lake Urmia, and the destruction of most wetlands—demonstrate that the state has failed even in performing its most basic governance functions regarding essential infrastructure.
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