If Labour performs as poorly as expected — and the SNP regains power, despite a prolonged financial investigation and two changes of first minister since 2023 — Starmer will face significant scrutiny for failing to capitalize on the 2024 success.
Sarwar has already urged Starmer to step down. He made this appeal in February, seeking to mitigate the damage in Scotland by bringing in a new PM in Westminster. Watch for others to potentially follow suit as results emerge on Friday and Saturday.
3) The Farage influence
Farage is on an extensive tour across England, with city, council, and district elections underway.
Previously successful in capturing Tory councils, the Reform UK leader now aims to challenge Labour directly — signaling his intent to target MPs’ seats by 2029.
The party is targeting strong results across the Midlands and northern England in places like Barnsley, Gateshead, and Sunderland. Sunderland includes Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s constituency, a key target for Reform in 2029.
“The issue for Labour is … it’s not entirely within their control,” says Curtice. “Labour desperately needs the Tories to rebound at Reform’s expense,” he adds. Farage draws significant support from ex-Tory voters. A Conservative resurgence would, according to Curtice, “be the best news” the PM has had in some time.
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