Even before the Middle East conflict, airlines indicated the region was facing a structural kerosene deficit due to sanctions on Russian oil and decreasing European refining capacity. European jet fuel production depends largely on crude imports from the Middle East.
“Europe has long been a net importer of jet fuel, with imports making up about 30 percent of regional demand,” the International Air Transport Association (IATA) airline lobby noted last year.
“This increasing dependence on imports, combined with uneven infrastructure development, highlights the risk of localized shortages and price fluctuations, especially if geopolitical shocks or sanctions further limit global jet fuel availability,” the IATA stated in its 2025 analysis, which now seems foretelling.
While identifying France as the second-most vulnerable country in Europe to a potential jet fuel shortage, Kpler’s Shaw said he believes Paris will face less trouble than London in securing missing kerosene supply, even if Gulf supplies remain blocked.
“It can obtain overland supplies from the Netherlands or Belgium,” which act as “Europe’s oil hubs” since they are the main entry point for seaborne crude, he explained.
Despite the impending fuel shortage, airlines are struggling to conserve fuel. Since the crisis in Iran began, carriers have been forced to take longer routes to avoid the Gulf, thereby consuming more kerosene.
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