American tariffs on the EU could endure for as long as 20 years. While these tariffs are economically detrimental, they hold political appeal, requiring no tax hikes, which makes them potentially viable even under Democratic administrations, as highlighted by an analysis from the Bruegel think tank.
Experts estimate that the duration of these tariffs may range from 7 to 20 years, indicating a bleak outlook. Supporters argue that despite their economic drawbacks, tariffs are politically favorable. The current Democratic administration appears reluctant to eliminate them, as shown by President Joe Biden’s decision not to roll back the lower tariffs established during Donald Trump’s presidency.
The elimination of tariffs, they argue, is unlikely to occur without a comprehensive reform of the global trading system through the World Trade Organization, which seems improbable given the present circumstances.
Additionally, tariffs provide government revenue without necessitating formal tax increases, rendering them appealing in a highly divided political landscape in the U.S. The adverse economic repercussions—such as increased inflation or sluggish growth—are often not fully understood by the public and do not prioritize voters’ concerns, thus bolstering their political viability.
Conversely, more optimistic forecasts suggest that tariffs could be in place for a shorter period of 2 to 5 years. Critics highlight the economic inefficiencies of tariffs and their potential to exacerbate stagflation in the U.S., predicting a 0.5 percent slowdown in GDP growth between 2025 and 2026 while maintaining inflation above the Federal Reserve’s target. Additionally, the historical precedent of high tariffs set by Trump points to their politically driven nature.
Those advocating for a shorter duration of tariffs note that the revenue generated, projected at around $300 billion this year, represents only 0.7 percent of GDP, indicating that any potential losses could be offset through other means. The negative impact on consumers and businesses also limits the tariffs’ long-term sustainability in a democracy. Abolishing tariffs could offer Democrats a clear way to differentiate themselves from the former administration’s policies.
Experts point out that, following months of uncertainty over the Trump administration’s tariff decisions on imports, international trade has largely stabilized. Currently, imports from the European Union are subjected to a customs tariff of up to 15 percent, with discussions now centering more on the duration of the tariffs rather than on ways to avoid or lessen them. (27.08.2025)
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