French Government to Replicate Budget That Once Toppled Its Predecessor

A way forward in the political impasse remains uncertain.

François Bayrou currently lacks majority support in parliament, leaving him vulnerable to opposition forces. Should opposing parties unite against him—as they did with his predecessor Michel Barnier—his administration could face collapse.

In an effort to ensure the government survives the winter, Finance Minister Thomas Lombard and his deputy, Amélie de Montchalin, who oversees the budget, are actively reaching out to opposition parties. Their goal is to find potential compromises or, at the very least, secure an agreement to prevent the government and its budget from being toppled. In exchange, they are prepared to offer concessions to the opposition.

Lombard and Montchalin plan to meet with all parliamentary factions by January 14, ahead of Bayrou’s first major policy speech in front of lawmakers.

Despite these efforts, the government’s ability to negotiate is constrained. By rolling over Barnier’s budget from last year, parliamentary amendments will be limited to modifying existing provisions rather than introducing entirely new ones. This significantly reduces the space for broad negotiation.

“They can tweak [the budget], but they can’t change it fundamentally,” stated Eric Coquerel, head of the parliament’s finance committee and a left-wing lawmaker, in an interview with POLITICO. “I don’t really see how they’re going to propose [legislation] that’s less likely to provoke a vote of no confidence.”

Further complicating the situation are doubts about the government’s ability to implement Barnier’s proposed one-off windfall tax on large corporations and wealthy individuals. This measure was initially promoted by the former prime minister as a way to help reduce the budget deficit without overburdening the majority of taxpayers. However, implementing this tax requires passing a law in 2025 to target revenue generated in 2024—an ambitious timeline that raises concerns about feasibility.

As tensions persist, the challenges facing Bayrou’s leadership deepen, with no clear resolution in sight.