“‘No One Was Deceived into Supporting Trump’: Why the Disinformation Debate Has Quieted”

To what degree social media can be blamed for polarization remains uncertain. While online platforms have long been touted as the cause of a global polarization crisis, the reality appears more nuanced. Recent studies indicate that polarization has either decreased or stayed the same in most countries between 1980 and 2020, suggesting that the U.S.’s unique political and media culture might play a larger role in its divisions than previously thought.

Determining the impact of misinformation on electoral outcomes continues to be an elusive challenge. The authors of a study in the Misinformation Review argued that the complexity of this task renders it nearly impossible for researchers to definitively measure.

“Many believe that with the right data or resources, we could get there,” said Irene Pasquettto, an assistant professor at the College of Information at the University of Maryland. “But I personally don’t think it’s something that can be quantified in a truly scientific way.”

Experts consulted for this article suggested the field of misinformation research will likely evolve to address emerging findings, potentially focusing more on disinformation campaigns in the global south. Some researchers have already shifted their focus back to “foundational frameworks” developed before 2016 in response to rising critique of the field’s limitations.

‘The frame of disinformation has failed us’

On a societal level, the fixation on determining whether information is true as the basis for political analysis is increasingly being seen as too narrow.

“I’ve been reflecting on this a great deal … about how the disinformation framing has let us down and what alternatives we could explore,” said expert Marwick. “The issue isn’t so much about individual ‘units of facts.’ It’s about these big, persistent narratives, many of which have existed for hundreds of years.”

These insights suggest that any meaningful analysis of disinformation must move beyond a narrow focus on factual accuracy and instead address the systemic and historical narratives that shape public perception.