Assad’s Downfall: The Winners and Losers

More than 13 million Syrians have been forcibly displaced as a result of the ongoing conflict, with 6.2 million fleeing abroad. The war also set the stage for the emergence of the highly violent jihadist group, the Islamic State (IS).

The future for ordinary Syrians hinges on what unfolds next. A key question is whether the country can avoid further violence and chart a peaceful path forward. Many harbor fears of a power vacuum, with potential clashes between the country’s diverse political factions and religious communities.

These concerns are not unwarranted. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Syria’s main insurgent group, is classified as a terrorist organization by the United States. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has a history steeped in jihadist extremism. Once a close associate of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the late leader of the Islamic State, al-Jolani eventually split from IS over disagreements about tactics, becoming a rival and bitter adversary of the group.

HTS originated as a faction of al-Qaida, but al-Jolani has made significant efforts to rebrand it as a nationalist force. The group, which is believed to have around 30,000 fighters, has taken a more diplomatic approach toward Syria’s religious minorities. Since gaining control of the Idlib enclave in 2016, HTS has softened its stance toward Christian and Druze communities. In Aleppo, after the city came under HTS’s control, al-Jolani assured Christians of their safety, allowing churches to remain operational and unscathed.

Despite these changes, questions linger about whether HTS and al-Jolani have truly shed their extremist roots. Speaking to CNN on Friday, al-Jolani emphasized that the group has shifted its priorities, with rebuilding Syria now at the forefront of its agenda. “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is merely one part of this dialogue, and it may dissolve at any time. It is not an end in itself but a means to perform a task: confronting this regime,” he stated.

While there is hope that HTS has moderated its stance, skepticism persists. Former U.S. diplomat Alberto Fernandez cautioned against fully trusting al-Jolani or HTS, likening it to Oscar Wilde’s famous observation about second marriages: “the triumph of hope over experience.”