Bayrou remains unfazed by his low poll numbers, believing that momentum will begin to build in the late winter of 2026.
“The key,” he thinks, “is when people, during family meals, start saying around Christmas, February, or March: This one can do it.”
Currently, Bayrou seems unlikely to be that person. He is expected to lose a no-confidence vote next week after failing to enact severe budget cuts he claims are necessary to prevent France, the EU’s second-largest economy, from facing a Greek-like debt crisis.
Bayrou believes he will eventually be seen as a visionary for warning against overspending. If his predictions come true, families cutting back on holiday gifts or festive essentials like champagne and oysters by next Christmas will view him as the one who “told you so.”
However, he needs to recover significantly in popularity. The major presidential race in spring 2027 is still distant, but former centrist prime ministers Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal currently seem better positioned for the contest.
Bayrou’s image has also been affected by a scandal this year involving revelations that his daughter—without his knowledge—was among several children abused at a Catholic school near Pau, his stronghold in the Pyrenees.
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