US Drought, EU Surplus Cut in Half, and Exports Plummeting

BRUSSELS – Recent data from Eurostat highlights growing uncertainty surrounding tariffs, showing a marked slowdown in European exports to the United States in June, alongside a significant increase in imports from America. A joint statement intended to formalize the tariff agreement reached in late July between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump remains unresolved, leaving the proposed reduction in car tariffs stalled.

In June 2025, the EU’s surplus with the rest of the world fell to 8 billion euros, down from 20.3 billion euros a year prior. The surplus with the United States, the EU’s primary trading partner, was halved, dropping from 18.5 billion euros to 9.6 billion euros over twelve months. Eurostat reported a 10.3% decline in EU exports to the US, which totaled 40.2 billion euros, while imports from America surged by 16.4% to 30.6 billion euros, effectively diminishing Brussels’ trade advantage.

The decline is most significant in sectors vulnerable to trade tensions. The surplus for machinery and vehicles fell from 21.3 billion euros to 16.4 billion euros, while the chemical sector’s surplus decreased from 19.1 billion euros to 14.3 billion euros. Notably, ‘other manufactured goods’ experienced a reversal, shifting from a surplus of 1.9 billion euros to a deficit of 1.4 billion euros—these sectors have been particularly impacted by US tariffs. Seasonally adjusted figures also reflect this trend, with EU exports to third countries declining by 2.3% in June compared to May, and imports increasing by 2.9%, causing the trade balance to drop from 12.7 billion euros to 1.8 billion euros, indicating that tariff uncertainty is disrupting logistics.

According to the Financial Times, the EU–US joint statement to finalize the tariff agreement has been postponed due to disputes over language concerning “non-tariff barriers.” Washington seeks flexibility with European digital regulations, particularly the Digital Services Act, while Brussels insists on a non-negotiable limit. Without a resolution, the proposed reduction of car tariffs from 27.5% to 15% will not proceed, and the status of tariffs on wine and spirits remains uncertain. (August 18)