
General Christopher Cavoli has become the first senior military official to confirm that Ukrainian troops have entered Russia’s Belgorod region. While Ukraine’s military has not publicly acknowledged operations inside Belgorod, it frequently reports carrying out airstrikes there.
Neither Cavoli nor the Ukrainian military has specified how much of the neighboring Kursk region remains under Ukrainian control. However, DeepState, an open-source intelligence group tracking military activity, estimates Ukraine currently holds approximately 140 square kilometers in Kursk. This is down from the 1,300 square kilometers captured during Ukraine’s surprise cross-border offensive last summer.
Back in March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Kyiv had been taking active steps to strengthen defenses along the Russian border, ahead of what is believed to be a large-scale Kremlin offensive targeting Ukraine’s northeastern regions of Sumy and Kharkiv. This comes as Moscow prepares to mobilize 160,000 new conscripts for its armed forces.
Ukraine Has a Fighting Chance
Offering a broader picture of the conflict, Cavoli said the Ukrainian military remains in solid defensive positions and is making steady progress in rebuilding its forces through improved recruitment and training programs.
“While it’s difficult to imagine Ukraine launching a major offensive that reclaims every inch of occupied territory at this moment, it’s equally hard to envision a total Ukrainian collapse,” Cavoli stated. “A Ukrainian defeat is not inevitable. In fact, their situation has markedly improved.”
According to Cavoli, compared to the severe personnel shortages Ukraine faced last autumn, conditions have improved. By contrast, Russian forces appear to be lacking both sufficient manpower and armored vehicles.
“Ukraine has expanded its volunteer recruitment pool and has successfully redeployed troops from headquarters units to the front lines,” he explained. “They’ve been relying extensively on one-way attack drones and have developed some of their own long-range cruise missile systems as well.”
Cavoli concluded: “Ukraine is committed to defending itself and ensuring that Russia does not achieve victory.”
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