Traditionally, the European People’s Party (EPP) has built majorities on a vote-by-vote basis by aligning with centrist, mainstream political factions like the Socialists and Democrats, as well as the liberals. However, during the election campaign, the Socialists warned that they would not support the EPP’s candidate, Ursula von der Leyen, for a second term as European Commission president if the EPP engaged in any “structural cooperation” with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).
Despite these reservations, months ahead of the election, the EPP and its leadership signaled a willingness to collaborate with certain elements of the ECR that they viewed as legitimate and valuable partners—particularly on matters such as supporting Ukraine. This potential alignment could lead to a significant rightward shift in EU policy in areas like migration and the protection of traditional industries, including farming and steel production.
“We have a responsibility after this election to ensure that something changes … The ECR will be part of our majority quite often,” remarked Peter Liese, an EPP lawmaker from Germany, during a press briefing on Monday.
The EPP is already making moves toward that promise, even though it is engaged in a high-stakes power struggle with the Socialists in Parliament. This tug-of-war has created uncertainty within the Commission during a time of considerable geopolitical tension, and only weeks before the upcoming inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
The prevailing power dynamics have been underscored by recent events such as the appointment of the new European Commission and a controversial vote to weaken a deforestation bill. These developments have solidified the growing influence of the EPP, positioning it firmly on the rightward flank of the political spectrum.
On Wednesday, key lawmakers will meet privately to determine the fate of seven European Commission nominees, a debate that hinges on two high-profile figures: Teresa Ribera, Spain’s Ecological Transition Minister and a favorite of the Socialists, and Raffaele Fitto, the EPP-backed candidate favored by the right.
Fitto’s nomination comes from Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose party is a member of the ECR. Notably, the other 19 future European commissioners who have secured provisional approval have only done so with the support of the ECR, highlighting the alliance’s growing importance in shaping the EU’s future.
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