Transition issues
In theory, obtaining exemptions or assigning a state-supported manager to the refineries should not pose a challenge.
However, if the refineries were to stop operations, the impact would differ significantly between the two countries.
In Bulgaria, where the Russian-owned refinery supplies up to 80 percent of the fuel, it might leave Sofia without supplies “by the end of the year,” according to Martin Vladimirov, a senior analyst at the Center for the Study of Democracy think tank.
Romania’s facility provides about “20 percent” of the nation’s fuel, noted Ana Otilia Nuțu, an energy analyst at the Expert Forum think tank. A shutdown could lead to “a few months” of slight price increases as the country seeks alternate imports.
Nevertheless, a shutdown might impact exports to neighboring Moldova, she mentioned. “If Moldova gets hit really bad, it’s going to be another … major PR opportunity for Russia,” Nuțu stated.
The Moldovan government on Friday proposed to purchase Lukoil’s assets in the country, including an aircraft fuel depot, and requested a sanctions delay from Washington.
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