Poland’s PiS Bets on Underdog Presidential Candidate to Defy the Odds

The strategist emphasized that Nawrocki’s appeal stems from his working-class roots, which make him relatable and comfortable around “ordinary people,” such as rural women, local firemen, and others who grew up in modest circumstances, like living in apartment blocks—a common symbol of less privileged life in Poland.

“Trzaskowski is the candidate of the elites; he simply doesn’t understand the perspective of people like Nawrocki,” explained Szefernaker.

This narrative—pitting the “elites” against the “common people”—is shaping up to be a central theme in Nawrocki’s campaign. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party is focusing his messaging on small-town and rural Poland, where they aim to portray Trzaskowski as an out-of-touch liberal. They’ve criticized him for actions like removing crosses from government offices in Warsaw and firmly supporting LGBTQ+ rights.

Nevertheless, Trzaskowski enters the race with significant political experience. He nearly defeated President Andrzej Duda in the 2020 presidential election, narrowing the gap to just over 400,000 votes—about 2 percentage points. His supporters argue that the electoral process was skewed in Duda’s favor, largely due to PiS’s control of state media during the campaign.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, isn’t shying away from grassroots efforts himself. He’s been actively engaging with voters in a bid to connect with “ordinary people.” In one widely circulated moment, he was filmed at a campaign stop assisting a farmer in loading his truck with crates of vegetables, showcasing a hands-on approach.

Checking the Pulse of the Electorate

Early polling suggests Trzaskowski is leading the race decisively. One survey places him at 38.6 percent support compared to Nawrocki’s 23.3 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head run-off scenario, another poll puts Trzaskowski at 46 percent versus Nawrocki’s 34 percent.

As the campaign progresses, it seems Nawrocki will focus on leveraging his relatability and attacking Trzaskowski’s perceived elitism, while Trzaskowski banks on his political experience and a broader appeal to urban and centrist voters.