Orbán’s Still Winning Over Older Rural Voters — But Not the Young

Tisza believes this election will be different because it is putting forth local star László Gajdos as its main candidate. Hungarians have two votes—one for the national party list and another for their preferred candidate in single-member district constituencies. Of the 199 seats in the National Assembly, 106 are filled by district race winners, while 93 are filled from party lists. Gajdos, a popular director of the Nyíregyháza Zoo, is running on both.

Even pro-Fidesz observers like Mráz Ágoston Sámuel, director of the research consultancy Nézőpont Institute, expect Tisza to gain more national list seats because opposition voters are concentrated in cities, especially Budapest. He told POLITICO that Fidesz is estimated to win about 40 seats from the party list, but the real contest will be in the districts, where Fidesz is expected to maintain a majority.

Tisza disagrees. Péter Lajos Szakács, a party candidate in Nyíregyháza, told POLITICO he’s confident of victory. “In Nyíregyháza, we will win with a landslide. I’m in the second district and Gajdos is in the first. He’ll have a historic win. As for me, I’m currently tied with my opponent, but we’re working hard to win,” he said confidently.

However, local supporters POLITICO spoke to weren’t fully convinced the electoral battle in Nyíregyháza is over. “I wouldn’t dare make any predictions,” said Benji. Most suggested the election would be close, implying Fidesz might not reach its 2022 heights.

Dotted around the town are Fidesz billboards depicting Magyar as Janus-like, with half his face transformed into the EU flag. | Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Ultimately, in districts outside Budapest, much depends on Fidesz’s ability to mobilize supporters. Fidesz has been efficient in the past, but a video from October showed Orbán upset about the party’s database issues.

According to 76-year-old retail store owner Júlia, predicting the outcome might be futile. Júlia believes Hungary needs change: “I’m not saying who I’ll vote for, but my priority is that my kids and grandkids can stay here and make a living. Things must change for life to improve,” she reflected.

Meanwhile, political tensions are affecting her business. Gesturing to the empty street in downtown Nyíregyháza, she noted: “Everything is so quiet. We feel it. People are saving their money, scared of the future.”