NATO has expressed its condolences for those affected by the Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243 incident. “Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and victims of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243,” NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah posted on X (formerly Twitter) Thursday. Dakhlallah called for a thorough investigation and wished the injured a swift recovery.
The Kremlin has advised against jumping to conclusions about the crash. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated, “We need to wait for the investigation to conclude,” while urging patience.
Russia’s aviation authority released an official explanation, attributing the incident to a collision with a flock of birds. The plane was reportedly redirected to Aktau as a result. However, this account has faced skepticism, particularly after photographs of the damaged fuselage—riddled with what looks like shrapnel—circulated online.
Reports from several media outlets, including Russian independent outlet Meduza, Reuters, and Azerbaijan’s Caliber, posit that the passenger jet may have been struck by a Russian air defense missile. This occurred in a region where Moscow has been actively targeting Ukrainian drones in recent weeks. Caliber, citing Azerbaijani officials, claimed that the plane was denied emergency landing permission at three nearby Russian airports and was instead instructed to reroute across the Caspian Sea.
The theory of a missile strike gains further credence from reports of a concurrent drone attack on Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. Chechnya’s Security Council Secretary, Khamzat Kadyrov—nephew of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov—made a now-deleted Instagram post confirming that a drone attack on Grozny had been neutralized.
Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council’s Center for Countering Disinformation, alleged in a Telegram post that Russia failed to close the airspace over Grozny despite the threat of drones. He claimed the Azerbaijani plane was damaged by Russian forces and sent to Kazakhstan instead of being permitted an emergency landing in Grozny. “The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan, instead of making an emergency landing in Grozny and saving people’s lives. In one word — Russia,” Kovalenko wrote.
If confirmed, this incident would echo the 2014 tragedy of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was shot down over Ukraine’s Donbas region by a Russian surface-to-air missile, killing all 298 passengers on board. A Dutch court later found two Russian agents and a separatist commander guilty in absentia over that tragedy.
The Azerbaijan Airlines crash left 29 survivors, and more details are expected to emerge as investigations continue. Questions linger about the decision-making surrounding the flight’s emergency response and the possibility of a catastrophic case of mistaken targeting amidst an active conflict zone.
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