Belgium (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – By mid-2025, the Islamic Republic of Iran faces a historic crisis. Following the collapse of its regional influence – the so-called Axis of Resistance – Iran has now entered into a direct military confrontation with Israel, with its strategic depth eroding on all fronts. The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria, the decimation of Hamas in the Gaza War, the systematic dismantling of Hezbollah’s military capabilities, and the retreat of Iraqi Shi’a militias from active operations have left Iran increasingly isolated. This geopolitical isolation was compounded by Israel’s October 2024 pre-emptive strikes, which degraded Iran’s air defence systems and exposed the vulnerability of key nuclear and military sites.
On 13 June 2025, Israel launched a full-scale aerial campaign aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear programme and military command structure. Targets have included uranium enrichment sites, IRGC headquarters, missile launchers, military infrastructure, and energy facilities. The operation followed the IDF’s declassified intelligence report, citing IAEA data suggesting Iran had reached a “point of no return” in nuclear weaponisation.
In retaliation, Iran launched waves of ballistic missile attacks on mostly civilian Israeli targets. However, Israel has retained air superiority, systematically dismantling critical infrastructure and assassinating senior IRGC officials.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has now explicitly stated that the goal of the war is the fall of the Islamic regime, which continues to vow the destruction of the Israeli state.
Systemic Resilience and Revolutionary Legacy
Despite sustained military setbacks, Iran’s political system is not easily overturned. The 1979 Revolution – though initially a broad anti-Shah coalition – was ultimately captured by Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamist vision. This led to the establishment of a theocratic state under Islamist principles, where clerical authority overrides democratic institutions. Key to the regime’s endurance is its revolutionary identity, rooted in sacrifice and resistance. The ruling elite, many of whom are veterans of the Iran–Iraq War, operate within an ideological framework that sanctifies martyrdom and frames resistance as religious duty. This psychological and moral rigidity makes the regime both durable and dangerous under existential threat.
Moreover, while urban centres may host reformist or anti-regime sentiment, the regime retains substantial support across the rural heartland, bolstered by patronage networks, ideological education, and economic dependency. Western observers often underestimate this deep-rooted loyalty.
At the same time, Iran’s geography, demographic cohesion (over 90% Shi’a), and loose ethnic identities among most groups – with the notable exceptions of Kurds and Baluchs – make it a fundamentally different case from Iraq or Syria. Internal disintegration is not easily achieved. Although Israel may attempt to exploit separatist narratives, domestic separatism remains marginal and lacks critical mass. Azeris are the largest minority in Iran (~15–25%), comprising a majority in the country’s northern provinces. They are largely integrated into the regime, while their religious belief prevails over ethnic identity and nationalist aspirations. Supreme Leader Khamenei himself has Azeri roots. Most importantly, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not merely a military force – though powerful within Iran. It is an economic empire and ideological backbone. Even if clerical authority weakens, a militarised state structure could preserve systemic continuity under new authoritarian leadership.
Nevertheless, despite its resilience, the regime faces growing internal challenges. Urban youth, comprising over 60% of Iran’s population, express frustration with economic stagnation and social restrictions, as seen in the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests. At the same time, economic hardship – 40% inflation, 12% unemployment, and disrupted oil exports – may threaten even rural loyalty.
Scenarios Ahead
A sober forecast must explore not just outcomes, but mechanisms of change. Several scenarios, each drawn from contemporary indicators and structural analysis, can be considered:
Comments
2 responses to “Iran at a Turning Point: The Future of the Islamic Republic”
-
Seems like Iran’s had a bit of a rough patch, eh? Who knew a nuclear program could lead to a “point of no return” – talk about a one-way ticket to a geopolitical pickle! 😏🛩️
-
Quite the situation brewing in Iran, eh? Looks like the Islamic Republic is in for a bit of a rough ride – hope they packed their parachutes! 🇮🇷✈️
-
Looks like Iran’s having a midlife crisis that even a shiny new sports car can’t fix. Who knew the ‘Axis of Resistance’ would turn into the ‘Axis of Regret’? 🤷♂️
Last News
Bruges Adult Classes Maintain Current Rates for Next School Year
Bruges (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – In Bruges, SNT adult education will maintain current tuition rates for language and photography courses in the upcoming school year, despite inflation trends.
In a symbolic sense, the new school year begins on June 30 rather than September 1. By doing this, they are opposing Education Minister Demir’s (N-VA) proposal to raise student registration fees from 1
Czech Government Survives No-Confidence Vote Amid Bitcoin Scandal
The Czech government avoided collapse on Wednesday after weathering a no-confidence vote sparked by a bitcoin scandal involving a drug dealer that has unsettled the nation’s political landscape.
Out of 192 MPs present, 98 opposed an opposition attempt to unseat Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s administration, averting the possibility of snap elections just four months ahead of scheduled general electio
Slovak MEPs Support Extension of EU Recovery Plan Funding
Brussels/Strasbourg – On Wednesday, European Parliament members approved an extension of EU recovery plan funding beyond 2026. This initiative enjoys backing from several Slovak MEPs across various political groups, who shared their views with TASR.
Lucia Yar (RE/PS) emphasized that the progressives support an 18-month extension of recovery plan funding, which she believes is beneficial for Slova
Iran at a Turning Point: The Future of the Islamic Republic
Belgium (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – By mid-2025, the Islamic Republic of Iran faces a historic crisis. Following the collapse of its regional influence – the so-called Axis of Resistance – Iran has now entered into a direct military confrontation with Israel, with its strategic depth eroding on all fronts. The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria, the decimation of Hamas in the Gaza War, the
Israel is Undermining ‘Decades of Humanitarian Principles’, Says EU’s Kallas
The EU is reviewing its Association Agreement with Israel, which addresses trade and political relations, following a request from most member countries. Kallas is to report on the review process on Monday. The agreement requires Israel to uphold human rights, a commitment questioned by a majority of EU nations.
“Every day this war continues, humanity slips further away. Enough is enough,” Kallas
Mario Draghi Awarded the Princess of Asturias Award for International Cooperation 2025
Oviedo – Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank (2011-2019) and president of the Council of Ministers of Italy (2021-2022), has been honored with the Princess of Asturias Award for International Cooperation 2025.
The jury honored Draghi “for being a pivotal figure in defending European integration and international cooperation, recognized widely for his leadership and unwaver
Crackdown on Child Abuse Welcomed by MEPs
A senior MEP says he supports child protection but defends national legal sovereignty and harsher penalties against child abusers, including medical castration.
Anders Vistisen was speaking on Wednesday in a key plenary debate on the proposal to combat child abuse across the EU.
Vistisen emphasized both his strong support for protecting vulnerable children and his firm “opposition to any EU over
Ukraine Allows Dual Citizenship to Address Demographic Challenges
Oleksiy Chernyshov, the minister for national unity, stated on Facebook that this decision is vital for maintaining and restoring connections with millions of Ukrainians worldwide.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy introduced the bill to the parliament last August.
The government must now create a list of countries whose citizens can qualify for dual Ukrainian citizenship. The law also streamlines pro
EU Criminal Justice Initiative for the Western Balkans: General Prosecutors Meeting in Tirana
General and Special Prosecutors from the Western Balkans convened in Tirana, facilitated by the EU’s Criminal Justice project for the region.
The meeting aimed to address international organized crime networks, enhance cross-border cooperation in justice, foster trust among regional prosecutors, and offer EU support, particularly through Eurojust, the European Union Agency for Criminal Justice Co
China Criticizes Von der Leyen’s Comments on Rare Earths
Beijing (Eurotoday) – Speaking on Wednesday, Lin Jian, the spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, denied EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s remarks on China’s “pattern of dominance, dependency and blackmail” and charges that it uses its “quasi-monopoly” of rare earths to “undermine competitors in key industries.”
How did China respond to Von der Leyen’s comments?Why did von der
Comments
2 responses to “Iran at a Turning Point: The Future of the Islamic Republic”
-
Seems like Iran’s had a bit of a rough patch, eh? Who knew a nuclear program could lead to a “point of no return” – talk about a one-way ticket to a geopolitical pickle! 😏🛩️
-
Quite the situation brewing in Iran, eh? Looks like the Islamic Republic is in for a bit of a rough ride – hope they packed their parachutes! 🇮🇷✈️
-
Looks like Iran’s having a midlife crisis that even a shiny new sports car can’t fix. Who knew the ‘Axis of Resistance’ would turn into the ‘Axis of Regret’? 🤷♂️
Bruges Adult Classes Maintain Current Rates for Next School Year
Bruges (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – In Bruges, SNT adult education will maintain current tuition rates for language and photography courses in the upcoming school year, despite inflation trends.
In a symbolic sense, the new school year begins on June 30 rather than September 1. By doing this, they are opposing Education Minister Demir’s (N-VA) proposal to raise student registration fees from 1
Czech Government Survives No-Confidence Vote Amid Bitcoin Scandal
Out of 192 MPs present, 98 opposed an opposition attempt to unseat Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s administration, averting the possibility of snap elections just four months ahead of scheduled general electio
Slovak MEPs Support Extension of EU Recovery Plan Funding
Lucia Yar (RE/PS) emphasized that the progressives support an 18-month extension of recovery plan funding, which she believes is beneficial for Slova
Iran at a Turning Point: The Future of the Islamic Republic
Israel is Undermining ‘Decades of Humanitarian Principles’, Says EU’s Kallas
“Every day this war continues, humanity slips further away. Enough is enough,” Kallas
Mario Draghi Awarded the Princess of Asturias Award for International Cooperation 2025
The jury honored Draghi “for being a pivotal figure in defending European integration and international cooperation, recognized widely for his leadership and unwaver
Crackdown on Child Abuse Welcomed by MEPs
A senior MEP says he supports child protection but defends national legal sovereignty and harsher penalties against child abusers, including medical castration.
Anders Vistisen was speaking on Wednesday in a key plenary debate on the proposal to combat child abuse across the EU.
Vistisen emphasized both his strong support for protecting vulnerable children and his firm “opposition to any EU over
Ukraine Allows Dual Citizenship to Address Demographic Challenges
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy introduced the bill to the parliament last August.
The government must now create a list of countries whose citizens can qualify for dual Ukrainian citizenship. The law also streamlines pro
EU Criminal Justice Initiative for the Western Balkans: General Prosecutors Meeting in Tirana
The meeting aimed to address international organized crime networks, enhance cross-border cooperation in justice, foster trust among regional prosecutors, and offer EU support, particularly through Eurojust, the European Union Agency for Criminal Justice Co
China Criticizes Von der Leyen’s Comments on Rare Earths
Beijing (Eurotoday) – Speaking on Wednesday, Lin Jian, the spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, denied EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s remarks on China’s “pattern of dominance, dependency and blackmail” and charges that it uses its “quasi-monopoly” of rare earths to “undermine competitors in key industries.”
How did China respond to Von der Leyen’s comments?Why did von der
Leave a Reply