Defense officials and policymakers do not dismiss the possibility of Putin initiating a ground offensive in a NATO country, but they find it unlikely due to Russia’s current military commitments in Ukraine, according to a senior NATO diplomat and three senior European defense officials, who opted for anonymity to discuss this sensitive issue.
Instead, they believe Putin is more likely to engage in a targeted operation or incursion aimed at creating ambiguity, with the goal of causing division within NATO regarding whether such actions warrant invoking Article 5 of its mutual defense clause, according to Aaltola.
Article 5 states that an armed attack against one ally is considered an attack against all. However, Trump has labeled NATO a “paper tiger” and is set to leave office in January 2029.
Putin might escalate by targeting another neighboring country, thereby avoiding a humiliating negotiation with Ukraine, noted Gabrielius Landsbergis, the former foreign minister of Lithuania, who has also expressed concerns about Putin’s “window of opportunity,” in an interview with POLITICO.
Though European defense spending has significantly increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the anticipated effects will not be immediate, with the EU’s Defense Readiness Roadmap stating that the bloc aims to “credibly deter its adversaries and respond to any aggression” by 2030.
Ville Niinistö, chair of the European Parliament’s Delegation to the EU-Russia Parliamentary Cooperation Committee and a former government minister in Finland, warned that even a small psychological maneuver by Putin could instill fear, weaken resolve, and diminish support for Ukraine.
Leave a Reply