Here is a rewritten version of the article titled “Coupes dans l’aide au développement, droits de douane… les alliés des Etats-Unis au Moyen-Orient font face au ‘scénario du pire’” from POLITICO:
Title: Aid Cuts and Tariff Threats Leave U.S. Allies in the Middle East Facing a Worst-Case Scenario
As the United States and Europe weigh reductions in foreign aid and increased trade barriers, their allies in the Middle East are bracing for what experts describe as a potential geopolitical and humanitarian crisis.
According to analysts, significant development aid cutbacks and mounting trade tariffs—particularly under a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House—could destabilize key partner countries like Jordan and Egypt. Washington has historically used its economic support as a cornerstone of diplomacy in the region, maintaining security alliances and curbing extremism. A sharp reduction in that assistance now threatens to unravel years of cooperation.
“If development aid dries up and tariffs go up, the region could quickly become more volatile,” said one regional analyst. “Jordan, for example, has relied heavily on foreign assistance to support refugees and maintain social stability. Without it, public frustration could grow, fueling unrest or migration toward Europe.”
The article further explains how Middle Eastern governments worry that proposed policies from U.S. Republican leaders—including Trump’s promises to reduce foreign aid—could exacerbate economic hardship in countries already struggling with high youth unemployment and growing pressure from refugee populations, particularly from neighboring Syria.
European governments also play a critical financial role in supporting stability across the Middle East. But with shifting priorities and rising domestic pressures, there too are signs of donor fatigue—compounded by inflation and global crises that stretch Western resources thin.
Experts warn that withdrawing support now might undo gains made over the past two decades. “Reducing funding doesn’t just save money—it also removes influence,” said another policy analyst. “Leaving these countries to fend for themselves only creates openings for Russia, China, or extremist groups to fill the vacuum.”
Beyond diplomacy and security, trade could take a hit as well. U.S. allies are increasingly concerned about the reimposition of tariffs on vital exports, like textiles, which are critical for economies such as Jordan’s.
Overall, these looming threats present a troubling picture for the region—and for U.S. and European strategic interests. The “worst-case scenario,” as it’s being quietly called in diplomatic circles, envisions a surge in extremism, loss of Western influence, economic collapse in fragile states, and a new wave of instability that could extend far beyond the region’s borders.
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