Belgium (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – By mid-2025, the Islamic Republic of Iran faces a historic crisis. Following the collapse of its regional influence – the so-called Axis of Resistance – Iran has now entered into a direct military confrontation with Israel, with its strategic depth eroding on all fronts. The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria, the decimation of Hamas in the Gaza War, the systematic dismantling of Hezbollah’s military capabilities, and the retreat of Iraqi Shi’a militias from active operations have left Iran increasingly isolated. This geopolitical isolation was compounded by Israel’s October 2024 pre-emptive strikes, which degraded Iran’s air defence systems and exposed the vulnerability of key nuclear and military sites.
On 13 June 2025, Israel launched a full-scale aerial campaign aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear programme and military command structure. Targets have included uranium enrichment sites, IRGC headquarters, missile launchers, military infrastructure, and energy facilities. The operation followed the IDF’s declassified intelligence report, citing IAEA data suggesting Iran had reached a “point of no return” in nuclear weaponisation.
In retaliation, Iran launched waves of ballistic missile attacks on mostly civilian Israeli targets. However, Israel has retained air superiority, systematically dismantling critical infrastructure and assassinating senior IRGC officials.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has now explicitly stated that the goal of the war is the fall of the Islamic regime, which continues to vow the destruction of the Israeli state.
Systemic Resilience and Revolutionary Legacy
Despite sustained military setbacks, Iran’s political system is not easily overturned. The 1979 Revolution – though initially a broad anti-Shah coalition – was ultimately captured by Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamist vision. This led to the establishment of a theocratic state under Islamist principles, where clerical authority overrides democratic institutions. Key to the regime’s endurance is its revolutionary identity, rooted in sacrifice and resistance. The ruling elite, many of whom are veterans of the Iran–Iraq War, operate within an ideological framework that sanctifies martyrdom and frames resistance as religious duty. This psychological and moral rigidity makes the regime both durable and dangerous under existential threat.
Moreover, while urban centres may host reformist or anti-regime sentiment, the regime retains substantial support across the rural heartland, bolstered by patronage networks, ideological education, and economic dependency. Western observers often underestimate this deep-rooted loyalty.
At the same time, Iran’s geography, demographic cohesion (over 90% Shi’a), and loose ethnic identities among most groups – with the notable exceptions of Kurds and Baluchs – make it a fundamentally different case from Iraq or Syria. Internal disintegration is not easily achieved. Although Israel may attempt to exploit separatist narratives, domestic separatism remains marginal and lacks critical mass. Azeris are the largest minority in Iran (~15–25%), comprising a majority in the country’s northern provinces. They are largely integrated into the regime, while their religious belief prevails over ethnic identity and nationalist aspirations. Supreme Leader Khamenei himself has Azeri roots. Most importantly, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not merely a military force – though powerful within Iran. It is an economic empire and ideological backbone. Even if clerical authority weakens, a militarised state structure could preserve systemic continuity under new authoritarian leadership.
Nevertheless, despite its resilience, the regime faces growing internal challenges. Urban youth, comprising over 60% of Iran’s population, express frustration with economic stagnation and social restrictions, as seen in the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests. At the same time, economic hardship – 40% inflation, 12% unemployment, and disrupted oil exports – may threaten even rural loyalty.
Scenarios Ahead
A sober forecast must explore not just outcomes, but mechanisms of change. Several scenarios, each drawn from contemporary indicators and structural analysis, can be considered:
Comments
5 responses to “Iran at a Turning Point: The Future of the Islamic Republic”
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Seems like Iran’s had a bit of a rough patch, eh? Who knew a nuclear program could lead to a “point of no return” – talk about a one-way ticket to a geopolitical pickle! 😏🛩️
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Quite the situation brewing in Iran, eh? Looks like the Islamic Republic is in for a bit of a rough ride – hope they packed their parachutes! 🇮🇷✈️
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Looks like Iran’s having a midlife crisis that even a shiny new sports car can’t fix. Who knew the ‘Axis of Resistance’ would turn into the ‘Axis of Regret’? 🤷♂️
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Isn’t it delightful how a country can go from “axis of resistance” to “axis of isolation” in a few short years? Must be a new strategy called “let’s make more enemies,” eh? 😂
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Seems like Iran’s playing a game of geopolitical chess but forgot to read the rulebook. With their pieces scattered and the opposition making moves, one can only wonder if they’ll find a way to turn this checkmate into a triumph. 🍵🧐
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Looks like Iran’s future is about as bright as a rainy day in Brussels! With all that drama unfolding, maybe they should consider a career in theatre instead of geopolitics. 🎭
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Comments
5 responses to “Iran at a Turning Point: The Future of the Islamic Republic”
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Seems like Iran’s had a bit of a rough patch, eh? Who knew a nuclear program could lead to a “point of no return” – talk about a one-way ticket to a geopolitical pickle! 😏🛩️
-
Quite the situation brewing in Iran, eh? Looks like the Islamic Republic is in for a bit of a rough ride – hope they packed their parachutes! 🇮🇷✈️
-
Looks like Iran’s having a midlife crisis that even a shiny new sports car can’t fix. Who knew the ‘Axis of Resistance’ would turn into the ‘Axis of Regret’? 🤷♂️
-
Isn’t it delightful how a country can go from “axis of resistance” to “axis of isolation” in a few short years? Must be a new strategy called “let’s make more enemies,” eh? 😂
-
Seems like Iran’s playing a game of geopolitical chess but forgot to read the rulebook. With their pieces scattered and the opposition making moves, one can only wonder if they’ll find a way to turn this checkmate into a triumph. 🍵🧐
-
Looks like Iran’s future is about as bright as a rainy day in Brussels! With all that drama unfolding, maybe they should consider a career in theatre instead of geopolitics. 🎭
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