Brussels – Can a “Coalition of the Willing” safeguard Europe against a potential Russian assault? Experts in Brussels agree that while time is running short, establishing a robust European defense alliance will take considerable effort. One pressing question is the role that neutral countries like Austria can play in this context. Karel Lannoo from the think tank CEPS argues that they may have none, stating he “no longer believes in neutrality under these circumstances.”
Lannoo, managing director of the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), emphasized the urgency of developing an operational military structure for the EU. He highlighted that if Russia were to target the Baltic states, the response would be uncertain: “There might not be any response at all. Europe must be able to communicate clearly to Russia: If you do this, we will respond accordingly.” Thus, he insists that “Coalitions of the Willing must be established without delay,” hoping for “robust protection from a collective of European nations.”
Europe must develop “quickly mobilizable, strong armies”
According to Lannoo, Europe requires “quickly mobilizable, strong armies” and must urgently devise an operational command structure. However, he noted that achieving this with 27 countries is “impossible” and suggested that three major nations will need to lead the efforts. Significant improvements are necessary in logistics, operational capabilities, combat aircraft, and intelligence. Lannoo pointed out that the protective umbrella provided by the United States is no longer reliable. Meetings led by Britain and France have taken place in recent months to form a “Coalition of the Willing” aimed at securing lasting peace in Ukraine.
However, Luigi Scazzieri, chief analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), believes U.S. support will be essential for the coalition to succeed: “A certain level of backing from the USA for the coalition is vital, and thus far, that support is lacking.” He is skeptical about the formation of a true European army anytime soon, suggesting that any military operations in Ukraine would likely involve a coalition of European countries (both EU and non-EU), operating under a common command, potentially through NATO or a single nation-state. Due to divergent positions among EU member states, any military intervention in Ukraine is likely to take place through a coalition outside the EU framework, Scazzieri explained.
EU states must prepare to operate outside EU frameworks
During a discussion at the Brussels European Policy Centre (EPC), Janis Emmanouilidis, deputy director and study director, stressed the need for clearer definitions regarding the Coalition of the Willing and actions that can be taken within or outside EU treaties. He called for the EU and its member states to adopt a more ambitious stance regarding actions beyond the EU framework. He argued that such coalitions could serve as leverage, not only against those actively obstructing progress but also towards hesitant states.
Yet, Emmanouilidis cautioned against creating new permanent structures outside the EU framework, warning that a “new union outside the EU” could undermine the existing EU structure. He emphasized the importance of remaining inclusive of future member states and non-EU countries like the UK: “The vanguard must be an open vanguard.” Fabian Zuleeg, EPC director, noted that coalitions of states will be the primary format for the coming years but reminded that some nations may face constitutional limitations, including neutral countries.
Lannoo views Austria’s neutrality as a post-war construct that poses an “extreme weakness” for the country, suggesting that Austria relies on others for its protection. He also raised concerns about Austria’s “special relationship with Russia,” describing it as “very dangerous” due to effective Russian propaganda. Lannoo calls for an urgent awakening in Austria, insisting that the Coalition of the Willing’s structure must be established by 2025. He lamented the prevailing “prisoner’s dilemma,” where nations hesitate to collaborate while waiting for others to take the lead.
Zuleeg believes that coalitions involving multiple states can succeed if approached “in a more structured manner.” He suggested that if member states observe something taking shape outside, yet close to EU institutions, it may encourage initial non-participants to join. However, he also warned of “internal enemies” that may work against common interests, hinting at Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has repeatedly used vetoes to block critical decisions regarding Ukraine. Lannoo, in contrast, perceived Orban as less of a threat, arguing that he “merely shouts into the megaphone” and would ultimately comply with the majority
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