Projections, including those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, indicate that the upcoming El Niño might reach 2C or even surpass that level.
The 2023 El Niño was among the top five in strength and contributed to making 2024 the hottest year recorded. WMO experts have already cautioned that the next similar event could make 2027 set new global temperature records.
However, the WMO stated on Tuesday that it is still uncertain how strong this El Niño will be and when it will reach its peak.
“We will speak about moderate or strong when we are sure about that,” Saulo said. “There are models that are not providing any indication of a strong El Niño, while others are doing so.”
Although El Niño usually raises global temperatures, with the main warming impact occurring the year after it begins, regional effects differ. In Europe, predicting outcomes is challenging because of its distance from the Pacific.
In the southern U.S., parts of southern Latin America, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, more rainfall due to El Niño can lead to floods and landslides, according to the WMO. Conversely, Australia, other parts of Latin America, the Caribbean, Southern Asia, and Indonesia often experience drier conditions.
However, Saulo mentioned that if countries prepare properly and have early warning systems ready, “El Niño does not have to be a recipe for disaster.”
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