Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has intensified its campaign of hybrid warfare across Europe. This strategy encompasses arson, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and acts of sabotage, all of which aim to destabilize and pressure its adversaries.
A recent example is the suspected deliberate damage to energy and communications cables in the Baltic Sea. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius referred to the incident as “sabotage.” However, as with many of these hybrid attacks, governments often face challenges in swiftly and conclusively attributing responsibility to Moscow.
According to NATO officials, the scale of such operations has grown to concerning levels. “We can definitely count dozens. Up to 100 for sure. But then there’s a lot of foiled plots,” noted NATO’s James Appathurai, adding that the current number of incidents would have once been deemed “utterly unacceptable.”
In response to this increasing threat, NATO is revising its hybrid warfare strategy, originally outlined in 2015. The goal is to define more precisely which types of attacks could warrant a full-scale military response from the alliance.
“What we need to do now is be clearer among ourselves and then decide how we communicate that also to the Russians, that there are no-go areas,” Appathurai explained. The updates aim to leave no ambiguity about NATO’s red lines, signaling to Moscow the potential consequences of unconventional aggression.
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