Despite the panic in Westminster, there seems to be no immediate move to remove the prime minister. Some members of parliament have publicly questioned his leadership, but Cabinet ministers and backbench organizers have not yet moved from despair to open revolt.
Starmer will survive for now because the party, particularly its influential soft left faction, appears to be waiting for Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham. Burnham’s allies expect him to return to Westminster soon through a by-election triggered by the resignation of a sympathetic backbench Labour MP, a development already shaping party calculations.
Burnham’s influence is rising while former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner’s appeal is fading due to concerns about her popularity with voters. Health Secretary Wes Streeting also has support from Labour MPs, but he is unlikely to gain a majority among the grassroots party members who choose the leader.
Geopolitics is also granting Starmer some time. Many senior Labour figures believe voters would not forgive the party for removing a prime minister during a period of war and economic uncertainty. They think Starmer should take the political fallout from the cost-of-living pressures caused by the war in Iran.
However, this will only delay his fate.
Pressure is building inside the government for Starmer to establish a departure timetable and oversee a smooth transition. The prime minister will resist these calls, arguing that announcing an exit date would instantly render him a lame duck, unsettling financial markets already anxious about the state of the U.K.’s public finances and limited growth outlook.
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