“They don’t need to use drones to confuse air defense radars and overwhelm systems in the same way,” she said. “So there would be no real preservation of resources, at least in the early stages of a potential conflict with the U.S.”
Beijing faces its own challenges. China has not engaged in war since its 1979 invasion of Vietnam and is undergoing a major military purge. This led to the sentencing to death of two former defense ministers, Li Shangfu and Wei Fengh, this week. Since 2022, more than 100 senior military officers have been dismissed, according to a tally by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
While observing Beijing’s military expansion, the U.S. noted that China has long studied American military tactics. This goes back to at least Operation Desert Storm when China first saw the U.S. utilize precision-strike weapons. After the 2008 global financial crisis, China began launching its first aircraft carriers and heavily invested in long-range missiles to deter the American military.
“They understand how we project power,” said a second former defense official. “They know our reliance on tankers, bases, how we conduct air strikes, non-kinetic strikes, and our use of electronic and cyber warfare. They scrutinize all of this. It’s an opportunity for them to learn about the U.S. way of warfare.”
China is also likely observing how quickly America exhausts its high-end missiles, ranging from Tomahawks to Patriot air defenses.
“They are aware that every missile used in Iran is one less available to deter threats in the Indo-Pacific,” the former official said.
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