This year has significantly tested the world’s largest trading alliance. While the long-term economic effects remain uncertain, the immediate outcomes include Europe’s need to reconsider its dependence on the U.S. for security and seek new trade allies.
With a word of caution that the following may evoke past events, we lead you through POLITICO’s reporting on Europe’s challenging trade year under Trump:
January
Trump’s return to the White House prompts examination of how America’s trade partners are preparing for his trade threats. The strategy? Escalate to de-escalate. This approach later became evident in Trump’s dealings with China and Canada. However, the EU refrains from escalating.
Trump’s re-election motivates the EU to pursue trade agreements with other partners such as Mexico and Mercosur in Latin America. “Europe will continue seeking cooperation — not only with our usual like-minded partners but with any nation sharing common interests,” von der Leyen states at the World Economic Forum following Trump’s inauguration.
February
As Trump declares the reimposition of steel and aluminum tariffs, von der Leyen promises a “firm and proportionate response.” The bloc has bolstered its trade defenses since his first presidency and must be ready to use them, advises former Commission trade official Jean-Luc Demarty: “Especially with someone like Trump, not reacting invites domination.”
This raises the issue of whether trade wars are indeed easy to win, as Trump claims. The simple answer is “no.” Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, meanwhile, carries numerous concessions on his inaugural visit to Washington.
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