Winners and Losers in France After Le Pen’s Guilty Verdict

French Prime Minister François Bayrou may soon become the political casualty of Marine Le Pen’s recent setback. As a centrist and key ally to President Emmanuel Macron, Bayrou has been carefully maneuvering in an attempt to secure enough support from both the far-right National Rally and moderate left-wing lawmakers to uphold his struggling minority government.

Bayrou took office in December following the ousting of his predecessor by the far right. Since then, the National Rally has stopped short of pulling the rug from under his administration, although tensions have been escalating in anticipation of the Le Pen verdict.

“It’s like a rodeo—he’s just trying to hang on,” said a prominent figure within the National Rally, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal party matters. The official emphasized that while the party isn’t actively seeking pretexts to bring down the government, it wouldn’t hesitate if it identifies sufficiently serious grounds for action.

Adding to the uncertainty, Bayrou is navigating his own legal history. He previously stood trial over allegations that his party misused European Parliament funds to finance political activities. Although he was acquitted in 2023, several party members were found guilty and the case is far from closed—prosecutors have appealed, and a retrial looms.

As questions swirl over leadership and stability, the political future of Bayrou—and perhaps Macron’s broader coalition—remains unresolved. The jury, both on his legal battles and political survival, is still out.

— Featuring Edouard Philippe


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