The bars of Manchester, much like those in Liverpool the previous week, were overshadowed by an air of impending doom. Reform maintains a strong lead in the polls over both main parties. Although a general election isn’t due until 2029, many MPs aligned with Starmer and Badenoch fear potential leadership challenges after the May 2026 elections in Scotland, Wales, and England, which will significantly test public opinion.
Polling by Opinium, conducted last week, indicated Starmer’s approval rating had declined (net minus 44 points, a 3-point drop in a week) following his conference. Similarly, Badenoch’s flurry of policy announcements didn’t capture much media attention, although an X post about a misspelling of “Britain” on a Tory chocolate bar gained a million views. Press officers attributed the mistake to a printing error.
This incident highlighted the main parties’ ongoing challenge. “Conferences rarely shift public opinion significantly. Most people pay little attention,” explained Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analytics. “We need to see what makes it into news and TV: will it show unity, competence, and connection, or division, distraction, and disconnection?”
Initially, the Tory conference seemed to show unity and intense activity. However, underlying questions about the party’s relevance, direction, and leadership persist, alongside doubts about the center right’s stability and whether Britain’s oldest political party can withstand Reform’s challenge. These issues loom before Labour’s November budget and the May elections, which could reshape the narrative.
Eight years after Theresa May’s disastrous moment in Manchester, where she was plagued by a coughing fit and a comedian’s prank while her backdrop disintegrated, Badenoch’s speech faced scrutiny. A shadow Cabinet minister remarked that a similar performance would have ended Badenoch’s career, but she was considered “a lucky general.” This comment, like others in the article, was provided anonymously to ensure candor.
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