Brussels – The success of Andrej Babiš in the Czech parliamentary elections is raising concerns in Brussels, though analysts consulted by ČTK suggest the impact will depend on the structure of his government. Babiš, a former prime minister and co-founder of a political alliance with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, is often likened to him. However, experts from Brussels contend that Babiš is more pragmatic than an ideologue or staunch eurosceptic, which may indicate continuity in Czech foreign policy.
Martin Vokálek, the head of the Brussels branch of the Czech institute Europeum, remarked that the victory of the ANO movement was anticipated, reflecting a long-standing trend. Babiš has effectively tapped into societal dissatisfaction with the current government, perceived as disconnected from ordinary citizens and overly technocratic. ANO has successfully transformed this discontent into voter mobilization, garnering support from “extremist and protest parties, especially SPD and Stačilo!” towards the campaign’s conclusion.
This trend suggests that the electorate does not seek a complete overhaul of the country’s direction. Vokálek noted, “Czech society craves change and different leadership yet remains committed to the democratic framework and the nation’s European orientation.” He expects no drastic shift in foreign policy under Babiš, although the final composition of his government could influence this, adding that changes in tone, style, and priorities are inevitable.
Brussels experts assert that Babiš is not an ideological eurosceptic but a pragmatist who leverages the European agenda for domestic gain. “He is likely to prioritize national interests over European solidarity and may curtail Czech proactivity in foreign policy areas, such as supporting Ukraine,” Vokálek explained.
Belgian political scientist Jean-Michel De Waele from ULB described the election outcome as “an undeniable victory” for Babiš, though not a “political earthquake.” He commented on the complexity of coalition-building for Babiš.
Regarding the implications for the European Union, De Waele stated it is not positive news, indicating that celebrations are not occurring in Brussels. Babiš’s leadership could hinder efforts to foster a more robust and united Europe in economic, social, and military dimensions. Nonetheless, he pointed out that Babiš differs from Orbán, who is a stable ideologue with a defined worldview. De Waele believes Babiš’s pragmatism may allow the EU some leeway for negotiations on various matters. (October 4)
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